Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 91666.997113 96678.305363 101687.895470 107068.144842 112679.512359 118355.905155 124528.657288
2025-11-16 83777.624967 91454.214740 99340.453655 108037.306685 117348.562229 127008.147686 137776.135662
2025-11-23 77476.462920 86917.112538 96826.460441 107982.324676 120170.425650 133060.446998 147701.900992
2025-11-30 73649.180474 84515.656478 96125.913939 109419.402962 124183.438846 140041.932350 158327.649627
2025-12-07 70256.909930 82245.800496 95256.221861 110373.644589 127403.513757 145941.246481 167591.967415
2025-12-14 66783.547482 79621.368052 93752.552370 110393.025340 129380.378445 150297.541737 175008.248357
2025-12-21 63924.265625 77503.116443 92645.937999 110695.955005 131532.109223 154734.647245 182427.778653
2025-12-28 62164.805397 76527.368927 92734.035600 112264.860337 135046.010744 160659.290666 191509.316823
2026-01-04 60352.073583 75379.196532 92526.089262 113404.432901 137996.111629 165894.279658 199782.292003
2026-01-11 58475.653286 74057.434563 92028.222210 114126.085394 140396.228195 170452.377112 207254.136459
2026-01-18 56474.034160 72494.274334 91163.002592 114337.980242 142134.678964 174196.553759 213754.010291
2026-01-25 54725.824431 71162.229359 90505.897207 114736.072848 144043.826479 178108.127095 220437.528038
2026-02-01 52854.040104 69627.993566 89565.843800 114766.726407 145505.448498 181505.657107 226558.620812
2026-02-08 51711.360685 68951.939264 89634.085233 115994.764551 148397.597536 186612.555232 234748.160327
2026-02-15 50021.745751 67528.712296 88728.570913 115979.020866 149738.535492 189834.783050 240670.312730
2026-02-22 49191.750762 67156.045839 89095.101284 117511.695401 152963.807975 195336.348746 249371.121276
2026-03-01 48168.132958 66495.512976 89067.412504 118525.272591 155531.731350 200036.833517 257115.775368
2026-03-08 46741.121893 65266.679963 88280.129828 118546.221737 156836.310967 203174.925795 262948.853160
2026-03-15 45526.223148 64273.454619 87755.988726 118867.450076 158492.174179 206733.234284 269302.689094
2026-03-22 44972.109321 64124.925987 88295.217543 120530.559005 161834.293809 212388.431956 278278.532099
2026-03-29 44249.982479 63727.367725 88491.710416 121738.394792 164593.828348 217325.898907 286387.665136
2026-04-05 43374.378618 63096.177194 88360.285598 122503.208979 166777.863174 221544.588658 293616.560357
2026-04-12 42313.328944 62183.458245 87832.200909 122727.767517 168252.085131 224864.436710 299725.385283